After years of being a travel agent (10yrs to be exact!) I have heard it all when it comes to when the best time is to book a flight including:
“I hear if you book airfare on a Tuesday in the third week of the month you get the best prices”
Or,
“Midnight is the best time to book a flight because the airlines load their rates each night”
Or even,
“I keep searching the same website for my flights and every day it keeps going up in price - the website is tracking my search and must be increasing the rates because they know what I’m looking for”
While these all sound plausible the truth is actually much simpler than this.
The further in advance that you book your flight is typically when you can get a better deal. The airlines work off of live inventory on their aircrafts and start off with the lower priced seats - as you near your departure date availability lowers as people book the same flight so the prices will increase. That’s it!
So if a soccer team decides to go to Mexico on the same flight you’re looking at and they scoop up half of the seats on the plane, your price is going to go up!
There tends to be a sweet spot when the airlines are loading their rates, a year in advance can be too early as some load their higher rates first. But when you are within 8-10 months of your trip that is the best time to start looking at prices! Then hopefully booking by 6 months before you are wanting to depart.
The airlines will only sell so many seats at one price, then once those fares are gone they bump up to the next fare. For example they may have 30 seats at $700, then once they sell out the next fare is $780 and they have 30 seats at that rate and so on until the plane is sold out.
Seasonality & weekend rates are a real thing too. If you are able to fly on a weekday chances are there will be more availability at a lower price as most travelers prefer to fly on weekends due to work & time off.
I will always be an advocate of using a travel agent, so pick one that you can call your friend and have their expert knowledge go to work for you!
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